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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Josh Samman won · SUB R1
Elo1357
Josh Samman
Elo1358
Caio Magalhaes

Josh SammanvsCaio MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Samman won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:52

Model Prediction: Josh Samman wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Josh Samman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Samman at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Caio Magalhaes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Josh Samman has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Caio Magalhaes has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Caio Magalhaes has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Josh Samman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Samman
Red Corner
VS
Caio Magalhaes
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1357
Elo
1358
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh SammanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Apr 13
W
KOvs Eddie Gordon · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Tamdan McCrory · Dec 15
L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jul 16
latest
Caio Magalhaes
oldest →
W
SUBvs Karlos Vemola · Jun 13
W
vs Nick Ring · Dec 13
W
KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14
W
KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14
L
vs Brad Tavares · Sep 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh SammanMetricCaio Magalhaes
2.08
Strikes / min
2.27
2.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.78
34%
Strike defense
56%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
1.05
33%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1554Strikes23.5 vs 20.0Takedowns0.5 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 0.9
Josh SammanCaio Magalhaes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Josh Samman(5 fights)Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh SammanTargetCaio Magalhaes

By target zone

3
50% acc · 25%
Head
3
43% acc · 100%
3
43% acc · 25%
Body
0
6
100% acc · 50%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

12
63% acc · 100%
Distance
3
38% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Josh Samman rounds
0
even
0
Caio Magalhaes rounds
Round 1Josh Samman edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:11
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 19
Sig Strikes
3 / 8
63%
Sig Str %
37%
21 / 28
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Caio Magalhaes3 / 85 / 100 / 00
1Josh Samman12 / 1921 / 280 / 01

Josh Samman

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7