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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Trey Waters won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1492

Josh QuinlanvsTrey WatersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trey Waters won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Quinlan: StrikervsTrey Waters: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Trey Waters wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Trey Waters wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trey Waters at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Waters has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Quinlan

Red Corner

Trey Waters

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1486

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh QuinlanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Witt · Aug 22

KOvs Danny Barlow · Feb 24

vs Adam Fugitt · Jun 24

latest

Trey Waters

oldest →

vs Billy Ray Goff · May 24

KOvs Sam Patterson · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh QuinlanMetricTrey Waters

3.57

Strikes / min

6.39

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.40

71%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.81Δ 3.37 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh QuinlanTrey Waters

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Quinlan(4 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.1|Blue +6.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh QuinlanTargetTrey Waters

By target zone

25% acc · 52%

Head

49% acc · 89%

71% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 6%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

37% acc · 92%

Distance

102

51% acc · 98%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Quinlan rounds

even

Trey Waters rounds

Round 1Trey Waters edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:54

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Trey Waters edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Trey Waters edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 128

Sig Strikes

104 / 203

39.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

50 / 128

Total Strikes

106 / 205

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

8.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trey Waters	29 / 40	30 / 41	0 / 0
1	Josh Quinlan	12 / 28	12 / 28	1 / 4
2	Trey Waters	35 / 79	35 / 79	0 / 0
2	Josh Quinlan	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 2
3	Trey Waters	40 / 84	41 / 85	1 / 2
3	Josh Quinlan	20 / 59	20 / 59	0 / 2

Josh Quinlan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Trey Waters

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3