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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Barlow won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1486

Elo1488

Josh QuinlanvsDanny BarlowUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Danny Barlow won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:18

Style matchupJosh Quinlan: StrikervsDanny Barlow: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Danny Barlow wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Danny Barlow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Barlow at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Quinlan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Danny Barlow has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Danny Barlow has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Barlow (53.5%).
Danny Barlow has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Quinlan

Red Corner

Danny Barlow

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1486

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh QuinlanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Witt · Aug 22

vs Trey Waters · Apr 23

vs Adam Fugitt · Jun 24

latest

Danny BarlowL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Aug 24

KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 25

vs Djorden Santos · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh QuinlanMetricDanny Barlow

3.57

Strikes / min

5.81

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

53%

Strike defense

52%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.00

71%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.81Δ 3.97 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh QuinlanDanny Barlow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Quinlan(4 fights)Danny Barlow(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh QuinlanTargetDanny Barlow

By target zone

32% acc · 56%

Head

48% acc · 81%

78% acc · 36%

Body

72% acc · 14%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 5%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 93%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Quinlan rounds

even

Danny Barlow rounds

Round 1Danny Barlow edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Danny Barlow edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Danny Barlow edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 90

Sig Strikes

95 / 185

46%

Sig Str %

53%

39 / 90

Total Strikes

96 / 186

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Barlow	35 / 69	35 / 69	0 / 0
1	Josh Quinlan	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 0
2	Danny Barlow	36 / 79	36 / 79	0 / 0
2	Josh Quinlan	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 1
3	Danny Barlow	24 / 37	25 / 38	0 / 0
3	Josh Quinlan	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0

Josh Quinlan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Danny Barlow

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4