← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Adam Fugitt won · S-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1475

Josh QuinlanvsAdam FugittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Adam Fugitt won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Quinlan: StrikervsAdam Fugitt: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Adam Fugitt wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Adam Fugitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adam Fugitt at +114 American odds

+$114 profit

$214 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Adam Fugitt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Quinlan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Fugitt has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Josh Quinlan has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Adam Fugitt (53.5%).
Adam Fugitt has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Quinlan

Red Corner

Adam Fugitt

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1486

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh QuinlanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Witt · Aug 22

vs Trey Waters · Apr 23

KOvs Danny Barlow · Feb 24

latest

Adam FugittL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Jul 22

KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Feb 23

SUBvs Mike Malott · Jun 23

KOvs Islam Dulatov · Jul 25

KOvs Ty Miller · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh QuinlanMetricAdam Fugitt

3.57

Strikes / min

4.88

6.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.63

71%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.81Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh QuinlanAdam Fugitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Quinlan(4 fights)Adam Fugitt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.7|Blue -10.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh QuinlanTargetAdam Fugitt

By target zone

27% acc · 47%

Head

22% acc · 36%

79% acc · 21%

Body

68% acc · 50%

89% acc · 32%

Leg

73% acc · 14%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Quinlan rounds

even

Adam Fugitt rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Adam Fugitt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Adam Fugitt edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 126

Sig Strikes

80 / 205

41.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

53 / 126

Total Strikes

80 / 205

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adam Fugitt	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 0
1	Josh Quinlan	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 0
2	Adam Fugitt	27 / 62	27 / 62	0 / 2
2	Josh Quinlan	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
3	Adam Fugitt	31 / 85	31 / 85	0 / 0
3	Josh Quinlan	14 / 42	14 / 42	0 / 0

Josh Quinlan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6