← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Parker Porter won · U-DEC

Elo1491

Elo1497

Josh ParisianvsParker PorterUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Parker Porter won

U-DEC

Style matchupJosh Parisian: Pressure fightervsParker Porter: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Josh Parisian wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Parker Porter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Parisian at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Parisian enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Parisian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Parker Porter has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Parker Porter has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Parker Porter has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Josh Parisian has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Parisian

Red Corner

Parker Porter

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1491

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ParisianL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23

SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Parker Porter

oldest →

vs Alan Baudot · Feb 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 22

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 23

KOvs Braxton Smith · May 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ParisianMetricParker Porter

4.55

Strikes / min

6.55

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

6.32

41%

Strike defense

51%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.35

46%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ParisianParker Porter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Parisian(7 fights)Parker Porter(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.6|Blue +6.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ParisianTargetParker Porter

By target zone

41% acc · 62%

Head

47% acc · 71%

80% acc · 31%

Body

89% acc · 13%

89% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

47% acc · 78%

Distance

105

53% acc · 83%

69% acc · 22%

Clinch

74% acc · 16%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Parisian rounds

even

Parker Porter rounds

Round 1Josh Parisian edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:02

46Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Parker Porter edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:12Control

Round 3Parker Porter edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:26

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 226

Sig Strikes

126 / 228

51%

Sig Str %

56.7%

123 / 237

Total Strikes

164 / 275

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

4:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Parker Porter	46 / 92	57 / 104	1 / 2	0
1	Josh Parisian	56 / 115	61 / 122	0 / 0	0
2	Parker Porter	30 / 46	54 / 78	1 / 1	1
2	Josh Parisian	24 / 43	27 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Parker Porter	50 / 90	53 / 93	0 / 1	0
3	Josh Parisian	34 / 68	35 / 69	0 / 0	0

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Parker Porter

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8