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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1527

Josh ParisianvsMartin BudayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:11

Style matchupJosh Parisian: Pressure fightervsMartin Buday: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Martin Buday has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Martin Buday has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Parisian

Red Corner

Martin Buday

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1491

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ParisianL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roque Martinez · Jun 21

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Martin BudayW3 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ParisianMetricMartin Buday

4.55

Strikes / min

4.39

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

41%

Strike defense

55%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.15

46%

Takedown defense

93%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ParisianMartin Buday

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Parisian(7 fights)Martin Buday(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.0|Blue +36.0

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ParisianTargetMartin Buday

By target zone

31% acc · 58%

Head

58% acc · 83%

86% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 77%

Distance

57% acc · 67%

43% acc · 23%

Clinch

78% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Parisian rounds

even

Martin Buday rounds

Round 1Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:13

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 61

Sig Strikes

42 / 67

42%

Sig Str %

62%

27 / 63

Total Strikes

62 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Buday	42 / 67	62 / 91	1 / 1	1
1	Josh Parisian	26 / 61	27 / 63	0 / 0	0

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8