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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jamal Pogues won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1496

Josh ParisianvsJamal PoguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamal Pogues won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Parisian: Pressure fightervsJamal Pogues: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamal Pogues wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Jamal Pogues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamal Pogues at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamal Pogues has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Parisian

Red Corner

Jamal Pogues

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-295

(75%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ParisianL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roque Martinez · Jun 21

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22

SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Jamal Pogues

oldest →

vs Mick Parkin · Jul 23

vs Thomas Petersen · Feb 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ParisianMetricJamal Pogues

4.55

Strikes / min

3.57

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

41%

Strike defense

49%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

2.00

46%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ParisianJamal Pogues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Parisian(7 fights)Jamal Pogues(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ParisianTargetJamal Pogues

By target zone

22% acc · 51%

Head

52% acc · 88%

61% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 9%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

32% acc · 95%

Distance

43% acc · 61%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Parisian rounds

even

Jamal Pogues rounds

Round 1Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 2Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:29

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:43

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 113

Sig Strikes

33 / 60

33.7%

Sig Str %

53%

51 / 137

Total Strikes

49 / 79

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 11

50%

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

5:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamal Pogues	7 / 18	13 / 25	2 / 2
1	Josh Parisian	12 / 28	15 / 32	0 / 0
2	Jamal Pogues	8 / 14	17 / 24	2 / 5
2	Josh Parisian	13 / 39	17 / 49	0 / 0
3	Jamal Pogues	18 / 28	19 / 30	1 / 4
3	Josh Parisian	12 / 46	19 / 56	1 / 2

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Jamal Pogues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4