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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Josh Neer won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1352

Josh NeervsKeith WisniewskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Josh Neer won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Neer wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Josh Neer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Neer at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Neer has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Keith Wisniewski has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Neer

Red Corner

Keith Wisniewski

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh NeerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Duane Ludwig · Jan 12

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Oct 12

vs Court McGee · Feb 13

latest

Keith WisniewskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Clements · Apr 12

vs Ivan Jorge · Sep 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh NeerMetricKeith Wisniewski

3.29

Strikes / min

2.32

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.86

58%

Strike defense

42%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.57

46%

Takedown defense

78%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.34Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh NeerKeith Wisniewski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Neer(5 fights)Keith Wisniewski(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh NeerTargetKeith Wisniewski

By target zone

53% acc · 78%

Head

36% acc · 54%

100% acc · 16%

Body

90% acc · 46%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

0% acc

By position

49% acc · 54%

Distance

34% acc · 44%

77% acc · 46%

Clinch

77% acc · 56%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Neer rounds

even

Keith Wisniewski rounds

Round 1Josh Neer edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:32

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Josh Neer edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:10

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 159

Sig Strikes

41 / 83

57.5%

Sig Str %

51.5%

133 / 200

Total Strikes

41 / 83

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

3:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Keith Wisniewski	24 / 55	24 / 55	0 / 1	0
1	Josh Neer	35 / 76	55 / 96	0 / 0	0
2	Keith Wisniewski	17 / 28	17 / 28	0 / 1	0
2	Josh Neer	58 / 83	78 / 104	0 / 0	1

Josh Neer

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Keith Wisniewski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights3