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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Justin Edwards won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1355

Josh NeervsJustin EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Justin Edwards won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupJosh Neer: Submission grapplervsJustin Edwards: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Justin Edwards wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Justin Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Edwards at +255 American odds

+$255 profit

$355 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Josh Neer has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Josh Neer has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Neer

Red Corner

Justin Edwards

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1352

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh NeerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11

SUBvs Duane Ludwig · Jan 12

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12

vs Court McGee · Feb 13

latest

Justin EdwardsL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11

vs John Maguire · Nov 11

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh NeerMetricJustin Edwards

3.29

Strikes / min

2.68

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

58%

Strike defense

51%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.14

46%

Takedown defense

27%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh NeerJustin Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Neer(5 fights)Justin Edwards(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -216.0|Blue +216.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh NeerTargetJustin Edwards

By target zone

Head

80% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

Distance

86% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Neer rounds

even

Justin Edwards rounds

Round 1Justin Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 0

Sig Strikes

6 / 7

—

Sig Str %

85%

0 / 0

Total Strikes

7 / 8

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Edwards	6 / 7	7 / 8	0 / 1	1
1	Josh Neer	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0

Josh Neer

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7