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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tyron Woodley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1398

Josh KoscheckvsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:38

Model Prediction: Tyron Woodley wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tyron Woodley at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Koscheck

Red Corner

Tyron Woodley

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1354

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh KoscheckL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh KoscheckMetricTyron Woodley

1.79

Strikes / min

2.36

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

63%

Strike defense

54%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

1.06

64%

Takedown defense

87%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh KoscheckTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Koscheck(9 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.4|Blue +43.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh KoscheckTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

9% acc · 20%

Head

62% acc · 82%

100% acc · 40%

Body

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

17% acc · 40%

Distance

65% acc · 50%

100% acc · 60%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

Ground

54% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Koscheck rounds

even

Tyron Woodley rounds

Round 1Tyron Woodley edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 15

Sig Strikes

22 / 34

33%

Sig Str %

64%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

47 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tyron Woodley	22 / 34	47 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Koscheck	5 / 15	7 / 17	0 / 0	0

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15