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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1499

Josh KoscheckvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:57

Style matchupJosh Koscheck: WrestlervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Koscheck

Red Corner

Robbie Lawler

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1354

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh KoscheckL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh KoscheckMetricRobbie Lawler

1.79

Strikes / min

3.85

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

63%

Strike defense

59%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.65

64%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh KoscheckRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Koscheck(9 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -144.7|Blue +144.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh KoscheckTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

54% acc · 78%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 100%

Ground

78% acc · 78%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Koscheck rounds

even

Robbie Lawler rounds

Round 1Josh Koscheck edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:14

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 4

Sig Strikes

9 / 15

50%

Sig Str %

60%

5 / 7

Total Strikes

16 / 22

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robbie Lawler	9 / 15	16 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Koscheck	2 / 4	5 / 7	2 / 6	0

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18