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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Josh Koscheck won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1356

Josh KoscheckvsMike PierceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Koscheck won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Koscheck: WrestlervsMike Pierce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Josh Koscheck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at +248 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Koscheck

Red Corner

Mike Pierce

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh KoscheckL5 streak

oldest →

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh KoscheckMetricMike Pierce

1.79

Strikes / min

2.62

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

63%

Strike defense

62%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

3.08

64%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh KoscheckMike Pierce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Koscheck(9 fights)Mike Pierce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh KoscheckTargetMike Pierce

By target zone

26% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 73%

100% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

26% acc · 64%

Distance

29% acc · 78%

85% acc · 33%

Clinch

90% acc · 22%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Koscheck rounds

even

Mike Pierce rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:14

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:44

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Josh Koscheck edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:39

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 95

Sig Strikes

41 / 119

34%

Sig Str %

34%

47 / 110

Total Strikes

62 / 141

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

75%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Pierce	16 / 41	29 / 55	0 / 3
1	Josh Koscheck	12 / 35	19 / 42	0 / 0
2	Mike Pierce	14 / 43	21 / 50	0 / 1
2	Josh Koscheck	8 / 27	12 / 31	1 / 1
3	Mike Pierce	11 / 35	12 / 36	1 / 1
3	Josh Koscheck	13 / 33	16 / 37	1 / 2

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12