← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1362

Josh KoscheckvsJohny HendricksUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Koscheck: WrestlervsJohny Hendricks: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Johny Hendricks wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johny Hendricks at -133 American odds

+$75 profit

$175 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Josh Koscheck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
Josh Koscheck has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Koscheck

Red Corner

Johny Hendricks

Blue Corner

+123

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-133

(57%)

1354

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh KoscheckL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh KoscheckMetricJohny Hendricks

1.79

Strikes / min

3.49

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.99

63%

Strike defense

53%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

3.83

64%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh KoscheckJohny Hendricks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Koscheck(9 fights)Johny Hendricks(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.1|Blue +8.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -36.0|Blue +36.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh KoscheckTargetJohny Hendricks

By target zone

30% acc · 70%

Head

34% acc · 58%

77% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 38%

By position

30% acc · 55%

Distance

32% acc · 51%

33% acc · 18%

Clinch

84% acc · 49%

90% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Koscheck rounds

even

Johny Hendricks rounds

Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:41

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Josh Koscheck edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:45

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 89

Sig Strikes

55 / 120

35.7%

Sig Str %

45%

57 / 115

Total Strikes

82 / 153

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 6

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

3:26

Ctrl Time

2:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johny Hendricks	18 / 39	25 / 48	1 / 3
1	Josh Koscheck	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 0
2	Johny Hendricks	23 / 47	32 / 58	1 / 3
2	Josh Koscheck	5 / 22	9 / 26	0 / 0
3	Johny Hendricks	14 / 34	25 / 47	0 / 0
3	Josh Koscheck	14 / 28	34 / 50	1 / 2

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19