Featherweight

3 Rounds

Rani Yahya won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1495

Josh GrispivsRani YahyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupJosh Grispi: Submission grapplervsRani Yahya: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Grispi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Grispi has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Grispi

Red Corner

Rani Yahya

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1352

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh GrispiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 11

KOvs George Roop · Jun 11

vs Andy Ogle · Feb 13

latest

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh GrispiMetricRani Yahya

1.44

Strikes / min

1.71

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

50%

Strike defense

50%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

2.73

16%

Takedown defense

29%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.27Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh GrispiRani Yahya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Grispi(4 fights)Rani Yahya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -143.1|Blue +143.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh GrispiTargetRani Yahya

By target zone

43% acc · 50%

Head

29% acc · 67%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

56% acc · 83%

Distance

17% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

67% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Grispi rounds

even

Rani Yahya rounds

Round 1Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:06

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

60%

Sig Str %

33%

8 / 12

Total Strikes

11 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

2:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rani Yahya	3 / 9	11 / 27	1 / 2	1
1	Josh Grispi	6 / 10	8 / 12	0 / 0	0

Josh Grispi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19