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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Youssef Zalal won · SUB R1
Elo1461
Josh Emmett
Elo1526

Josh EmmettvsYoussef ZalalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Youssef Zalal won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:38

Model Prediction: Youssef Zalal wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Youssef Zalal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Youssef Zalal at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Youssef Zalal (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Youssef Zalal
Blue Corner
+360
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-460
(82%)
1461
Elo
1526
41
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23
W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23
L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25
L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26
latest
Youssef Zalal
oldest →
W
SUBvs Billy Quarantillo · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Jarno Errens · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Jack Shore · Nov 24
W
vs Calvin Kattar · Feb 25
L
DECvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricYoussef Zalal
3.67
Strikes / min
2.78
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
1.79
59%
Strike defense
64%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
1.84
43%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1582 vs 1549Strikes3.7 vs 3.0Takedowns1.1 vs 2.2Sub Atts0.10 vs 1.40Form-0.5 vs 1.0
Josh EmmettYoussef Zalal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501475150015251550← oldermost recent →
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Youssef Zalal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -65.0|Blue +65.0
Recent Form
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetYoussef Zalal

By target zone

0
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Josh Emmett rounds
0
even
1
Youssef Zalal rounds
Round 1Youssef Zalal edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:16
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 0
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
—
Sig Str %
0%
0 / 0
Total Strikes
0 / 1
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:16
Ctrl Time
0:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Youssef Zalal0 / 10 / 11 / 11
1Josh Emmett0 / 00 / 00 / 00

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Youssef Zalal

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11