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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1461

Elo1496

Josh EmmettvsShane BurgosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 20, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shane Burgos has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shane Burgos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Shane Burgos

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1461

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · May 19

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricShane Burgos

3.67

Strikes / min

7.40

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

6.78

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.43

43%

Takedown defense

91%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettShane Burgos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Shane Burgos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.2|Blue +35.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetShane Burgos

By target zone

42% acc · 77%

Head

39% acc · 53%

76% acc · 13%

Body

63% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

91% acc · 31%

By position

111

46% acc · 87%

Distance

121

50% acc · 95%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

70% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Shane Burgos rounds

Round 1Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:08

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control1:16

Knockdowns2

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 266

Sig Strikes

128 / 250

47%

Sig Str %

52.7%

136 / 275

Total Strikes

148 / 270

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Burgos	46 / 66	46 / 66	0 / 0
1	Josh Emmett	36 / 88	36 / 88	1 / 1
2	Shane Burgos	48 / 90	48 / 90	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	40 / 88	40 / 88	0 / 0
3	Shane Burgos	34 / 94	54 / 114	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	51 / 90	60 / 99	0 / 0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11