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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1461

Elo1443

Josh EmmettvsScott HoltzmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at +168 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Scott Holtzman

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1461

Elo

1443

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricScott Holtzman

3.67

Strikes / min

4.32

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

1.88

43%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettScott Holtzman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Scott Holtzman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.0|Blue -18.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +66.0|Blue -66.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetScott Holtzman

By target zone

42% acc · 57%

Head

32% acc · 74%

87% acc · 30%

Body

53% acc · 25%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

43% acc · 54%

Distance

29% acc · 58%

80% acc · 40%

Clinch

57% acc · 37%

71% acc · 6%

Ground

60% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Scott Holtzman rounds

Round 1Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:57

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns3

Control1:21

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns4

Control1:41

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 160

Sig Strikes

65 / 179

50.3%

Sig Str %

36.3%

99 / 175

Total Strikes

96 / 215

8 / 12

TDs

3 / 4

68.3%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Scott Holtzman	23 / 48	37 / 65	1 / 1	0
1	Josh Emmett	11 / 31	13 / 34	1 / 4	0
2	Scott Holtzman	16 / 58	19 / 62	1 / 2	0
2	Josh Emmett	29 / 58	36 / 66	3 / 3	1
3	Scott Holtzman	26 / 73	40 / 88	1 / 1	0
3	Josh Emmett	47 / 71	50 / 75	4 / 5	0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13