Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Josh Emmett won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1461
Josh Emmett
Elo1389

Josh EmmettvsMirsad BekticUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25

Model Prediction: Mirsad Bektic wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mirsad Bektic at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mirsad Bektic has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Mirsad Bektic
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1461
Elo
1389
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23
W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23
L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25
L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25
L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26
latest
Mirsad BekticL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 17
W
KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Jan 18
W
vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18
L
vs Dan Ige · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricMirsad Bektic
3.67
Strikes / min
2.43
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
1.80
59%
Strike defense
57%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
3.98
43%
Takedown defense
92%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1576Strikes3.6 vs 2.6Takedowns1.5 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.50Form0.6 vs 0.8
Josh EmmettMirsad Bektic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +72.1|Blue -72.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -294.0|Blue +294.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetMirsad Bektic

By target zone

22
51% acc · 81%
Head
8
13% acc · 80%
3
50% acc · 11%
Body
1
50% acc · 10%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

12
38% acc · 44%
Distance
10
15% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
15
75% acc · 56%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Josh Emmett rounds
0
even
0
Mirsad Bektic rounds
Round 1Josh Emmett edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:29
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
27 / 52
Sig Strikes
10 / 65
51%
Sig Str %
15%
33 / 60
Total Strikes
10 / 65
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:29
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mirsad Bektic10 / 6510 / 650 / 00
1Josh Emmett27 / 5233 / 600 / 00

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10