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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1461

Elo1502

Josh EmmettvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:14

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Johnson has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1461

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricMichael Johnson

3.67

Strikes / min

4.27

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

59%

Strike defense

58%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.57

43%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.3|Blue +41.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

11% acc · 32%

Head

12% acc · 54%

50% acc · 32%

Body

64% acc · 38%

100% acc · 36%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 87

Sig Strikes

24 / 128

28%

Sig Str %

18.3%

22 / 87

Total Strikes

24 / 128

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	7 / 36	7 / 36	0 / 0
1	Josh Emmett	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	10 / 51	10 / 51	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 1
3	Michael Johnson	7 / 41	7 / 41	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	8 / 45	8 / 45	0 / 1

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32