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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Lerone Murphy won · U-DEC R5
Elo1461
Josh Emmett
Elo1534

Josh EmmettvsLerone MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Lerone Murphy
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1461
Elo
1534
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23
W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25
L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26
latest
Lerone Murphy
oldest →
W
vs Josh Culibao · Jul 23
W
vs Edson Barboza · May 24
W
vs Dan Ige · Oct 24
W
KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricLerone Murphy
3.67
Strikes / min
4.34
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
2.65
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
1.20
43%
Takedown defense
44%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1598 vs 1609Strikes3.7 vs 4.3Takedowns1.1 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.50Form0.2 vs 1.0
Josh EmmettLerone Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501478150515331560← oldermost recent →
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Lerone Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -72.7|Blue +72.7
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +315.0|Blue -315.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetLerone Murphy

By target zone

29
23% acc · 71%
Head
37
41% acc · 44%
6
55% acc · 15%
Body
17
57% acc · 20%
6
75% acc · 15%
Leg
30
81% acc · 36%

By position

40
30% acc · 98%
Distance
75
51% acc · 89%
1
14% acc · 2%
Clinch
9
100% acc · 11%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Josh Emmett rounds
1
even
3
Lerone Murphy rounds
Round 1Josh Emmett edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:05
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control1:50
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:01
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:28
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Lerone Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:15
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
41 / 143
Sig Strikes
84 / 157
27.8%
Sig Str %
52.8%
44 / 149
Total Strikes
117 / 195
4 / 11
TDs
0 / 0
38%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:39
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lerone Murphy10 / 2411 / 260 / 00
1Josh Emmett10 / 2810 / 281 / 10
2Josh Emmett2 / 83 / 112 / 50
2Lerone Murphy13 / 2126 / 350 / 00
3Josh Emmett5 / 257 / 281 / 20
3Lerone Murphy21 / 3633 / 500 / 00
4Lerone Murphy22 / 4126 / 460 / 00
4Josh Emmett13 / 3813 / 380 / 20
5Josh Emmett11 / 4411 / 440 / 10
5Lerone Murphy18 / 3521 / 380 / 00

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10