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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Kevin Vallejos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1461

Elo1575

Josh EmmettvsKevin VallejosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Vallejos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Model Prediction: Kevin Vallejos wins(86.9%)

Actual result: Kevin Vallejos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Vallejos at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Vallejos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kevin Vallejos has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Vallejos (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Kevin Vallejos

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-520

(84%)

1461

Elo

1575

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

latest

Kevin VallejosW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Mar 25

vs Danny Silva · Aug 25

KOvs Giga Chikadze · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricKevin Vallejos

3.67

Strikes / min

6.12

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.66

43%

Takedown defense

84%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettKevin Vallejos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Kevin Vallejos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.8|Blue +113.8

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetKevin Vallejos

By target zone

18% acc · 67%

Head

61% acc · 83%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 33%

Clinch

71% acc · 28%

Ground

70% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Kevin Vallejos rounds

Round 1Kevin Vallejos edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 12

Sig Strikes

36 / 55

25%

Sig Str %

65%

3 / 12

Total Strikes

43 / 68

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Vallejos	36 / 55	43 / 68	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Emmett	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 1	0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Kevin Vallejos

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4