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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1461

Elo1473

Josh EmmettvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Model Prediction: Josh Emmett wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Emmett at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1461

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricJeremy Stephens

3.67

Strikes / min

3.13

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

1.10

43%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.4|Blue +11.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

39% acc · 75%

83% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

41% acc · 72%

Distance

39% acc · 79%

Clinch

63% acc · 28%

Ground

63% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Josh Emmett edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 40

Sig Strikes

24 / 57

40.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

21 / 43

Total Strikes

24 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	11 / 33	11 / 33	0 / 0
1	Josh Emmett	15 / 31	18 / 34	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	13 / 24	13 / 24	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27