← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

5 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · U-DEC R5

Elo1461

Elo1520

Josh EmmettvsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ilia Topuria has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-390

(80%)

1461

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricIlia Topuria

3.67

Strikes / min

4.81

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

59%

Strike defense

64%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

1.96

43%

Takedown defense

93%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.6|Blue +58.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

19% acc · 49%

Head

124

41% acc · 82%

49% acc · 30%

Body

56% acc · 6%

90% acc · 21%

Leg

73% acc · 13%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

114

39% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

68% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

56Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

1Knockdowns

Round 5Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 305

Sig Strikes

152 / 344

27.4%

Sig Str %

41.8%

89 / 309

Total Strikes

171 / 365

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilia Topuria	21 / 56	21 / 56	0 / 0
1	Josh Emmett	14 / 68	14 / 68	0 / 0
2	Ilia Topuria	30 / 75	30 / 75	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	19 / 68	19 / 68	0 / 0
3	Ilia Topuria	37 / 91	37 / 91	0 / 0
3	Josh Emmett	31 / 81	31 / 81	0 / 0
4	Josh Emmett	13 / 52	15 / 55	0 / 0
4	Ilia Topuria	56 / 100	62 / 107	0 / 0
5	Ilia Topuria	8 / 22	21 / 36	3 / 3
5	Josh Emmett	10 / 36	10 / 37	0 / 0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9