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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Desmond Green won · S-DEC R3

Elo1461

Elo1492

Josh EmmettvsDesmond GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Desmond Green won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Emmett wins(82.8%)

Actual result: Desmond Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Emmett at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Desmond Green has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Desmond Green has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Desmond Green (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Desmond Green

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1461

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Desmond GreenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Feb 18

vs Gleison Tibau · Jun 18

vs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 18

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricDesmond Green

3.67

Strikes / min

3.70

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

59%

Strike defense

69%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

1.62

43%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettDesmond Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Desmond Green(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.5|Blue +30.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetDesmond Green

By target zone

13% acc · 32%

Head

45% acc · 89%

50% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 4%

78% acc · 44%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 95%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Desmond Green rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 142

Sig Strikes

57 / 124

28.3%

Sig Str %

46%

43 / 144

Total Strikes

66 / 135

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Desmond Green	17 / 36	17 / 36	0 / 0
1	Josh Emmett	17 / 51	17 / 51	0 / 0
2	Desmond Green	23 / 52	23 / 52	0 / 0
2	Josh Emmett	10 / 43	10 / 43	0 / 1
3	Desmond Green	17 / 36	26 / 47	1 / 2
3	Josh Emmett	14 / 48	16 / 50	0 / 0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Desmond Green

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7