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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Emmett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1461

Elo1485

Josh EmmettvsDan IgeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Emmett wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Emmett at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett

Red Corner

Dan Ige

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1461

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Oct 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricDan Ige

3.67

Strikes / min

3.60

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.93

43%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh EmmettDan Ige

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Emmett(10 fights)Dan Ige(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.1|Blue +24.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +364.0|Blue -364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetDan Ige

By target zone

34% acc · 85%

Head

37% acc · 77%

58% acc · 12%

Body

69% acc · 13%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

88% acc · 10%

By position

32% acc · 80%

Distance

41% acc · 97%

71% acc · 8%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Emmett rounds

even

Dan Ige rounds

Round 1Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:09

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:02

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 165

Sig Strikes

70 / 168

37.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

62 / 167

Total Strikes

73 / 171

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Ige	23 / 50	25 / 52	1 / 1
1	Josh Emmett	14 / 31	15 / 32	0 / 0
2	Dan Ige	25 / 56	26 / 57	0 / 2
2	Josh Emmett	26 / 64	26 / 64	0 / 0
3	Dan Ige	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 1
3	Josh Emmett	20 / 70	21 / 71	0 / 0

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21