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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Josh Emmett won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1461
Josh Emmett
Elo1528
Bryce Mitchell

Josh EmmettvsBryce MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:57

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Josh Emmett enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett
Red Corner
VS
Bryce Mitchell
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1461
Elo
1528
41
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh EmmettL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23
L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25
L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25
L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26
latest
Bryce MitchellW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Dan Ige · Sep 23
W
KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25
W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25
W
SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh EmmettMetricBryce Mitchell
3.67
Strikes / min
2.27
4.52
Strikes absorbed / min
1.60
59%
Strike defense
58%
1.07
TDs / 15 min
3.24
43%
Takedown defense
33%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.85Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1581 vs 1590Strikes4.0 vs 2.3Takedowns0.9 vs 3.5Sub Atts0.10 vs 1.60Form-0.4 vs 0.5
Josh EmmettBryce Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501473149515181540← oldermost recent →
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -66.9|Blue +66.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh EmmettTargetBryce Mitchell

By target zone

1
25% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
20% acc · 50%
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
20% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Josh Emmett rounds
0
even
0
Bryce Mitchell rounds
Round 1Josh Emmett edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 10
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
20%
Sig Str %
0%
2 / 10
Total Strikes
0 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bryce Mitchell0 / 30 / 30 / 00
1Josh Emmett2 / 102 / 100 / 00

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14