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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Culibao won · U-DEC

Elo1491

Elo1497

Josh CulibaovsShayilan NuerdanbiekeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Culibao won

U-DEC

Style matchupJosh Culibao: Well-roundedvsShayilan Nuerdanbieke: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Josh Culibao wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Josh Culibao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Culibao at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Culibao has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Josh Culibao has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Culibao

Red Corner

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1491

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh CulibaoL3 streak

oldest →

vs SeungWoo Choi · Jun 22

SUBvs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Feb 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Jul 23

vs Danny Silva · Mar 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Aug 24

latest

Shayilan NuerdanbiekeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Soriano · Nov 21

vs TJ Brown · Jun 22

KOvs Darrick Minner · Nov 22

KOvs Steve Garcia · Apr 23

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh CulibaoMetricShayilan Nuerdanbieke

3.41

Strikes / min

1.95

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

59%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.30

65%

Takedown defense

28%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh CulibaoShayilan Nuerdanbieke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Culibao(6 fights)Shayilan Nuerdanbieke(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh CulibaoTargetShayilan Nuerdanbieke

By target zone

41% acc · 64%

Head

24% acc · 76%

100% acc · 2%

Body

75% acc · 18%

86% acc · 34%

Leg

25% acc · 6%

By position

50% acc · 96%

Distance

23% acc · 71%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Culibao rounds

even

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke rounds

Round 1Shayilan Nuerdanbieke edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Josh Culibao edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Josh Culibao edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 104

Sig Strikes

17 / 63

56.7%

Sig Str %

27%

87 / 140

Total Strikes

23 / 71

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 14

TD %

12%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

6:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	6 / 18	9 / 21	1 / 6	0
1	Josh Culibao	11 / 14	21 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	5 / 21	5 / 22	0 / 3	0
2	Josh Culibao	21 / 44	34 / 58	0 / 1	0
3	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	6 / 24	9 / 28	1 / 5	0
3	Josh Culibao	21 / 46	32 / 57	0 / 0	1

Josh Culibao

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6