Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josh Culibao won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1474

Josh CulibaovsMelsik BaghdasaryanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Josh Culibao won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:02

Style matchupJosh Culibao: Well-roundedvsMelsik Baghdasaryan: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Josh Culibao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melsik Baghdasaryan at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Culibao

Red Corner

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1491

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh CulibaoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · May 21

vs SeungWoo Choi · Jun 22

vs Lerone Murphy · Jul 23

vs Danny Silva · Mar 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Aug 24

latest

Melsik BaghdasaryanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21

vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21

vs Tucker Lutz · Jul 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh CulibaoMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan

3.41

Strikes / min

5.04

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

59%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

65%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Culibao(6 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.7|Blue -17.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh CulibaoTargetMelsik Baghdasaryan

By target zone

13% acc · 19%

Head

32% acc · 23%

38% acc · 19%

Body

80% acc · 31%

77% acc · 63%

Leg

80% acc · 46%

By position

35% acc · 94%

Distance

59% acc · 92%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Culibao rounds

even

Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds

Round 1Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 45

Sig Strikes

26 / 44

35%

Sig Str %

58.5%

16 / 45

Total Strikes

26 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melsik Baghdasaryan	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Culibao	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Melsik Baghdasaryan	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Culibao	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0	1

Josh Culibao

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6