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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Travis Browne won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1361

Josh BarnettvsTravis BrowneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Travis Browne won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:00

Style matchupJosh Barnett: Submission grapplervsTravis Browne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Travis Browne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Barnett at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Josh Barnett has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Josh Barnett has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Travis Browne has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Barnett

Red Corner

Travis Browne

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1491

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Barnett

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13

vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16

latest

Travis BrowneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh BarnettMetricTravis Browne

3.20

Strikes / min

2.93

2.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

57%

Strike defense

42%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

1.21

55%

Takedown defense

75%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh BarnettTravis Browne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Barnett(5 fights)Travis Browne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.6|Blue -129.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh BarnettTargetTravis Browne

By target zone

50% acc · 40%

Head

63% acc · 100%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 40%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 80%

Distance

42% acc · 42%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Barnett rounds

even

Travis Browne rounds

Round 1Travis Browne edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:10

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 7

Sig Strikes

12 / 19

71%

Sig Str %

63%

6 / 8

Total Strikes

12 / 19

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Travis Browne	12 / 19	12 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Barnett	5 / 7	6 / 8	0 / 1	0

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16