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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Josh Barnett won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Josh BarnettvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Josh Barnett won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Barnett at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Josh Barnett has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Josh Barnett has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Josh Barnett has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Barnett

Red Corner

Roy Nelson

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Barnett

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16

latest

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh BarnettMetricRoy Nelson

3.20

Strikes / min

2.18

2.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

57%

Strike defense

46%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

1.14

55%

Takedown defense

65%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 3.70 — meaningful gap-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh BarnettRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Barnett(5 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +441.0|Blue -441.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh BarnettTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

63% acc · 63%

Head

45% acc · 63%

93% acc · 36%

Body

79% acc · 25%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

70% acc · 12%

By position

54% acc · 35%

Distance

45% acc · 47%

86% acc · 65%

Clinch

59% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Barnett rounds

even

Roy Nelson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:38

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:51Control

Round 2Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control2:17

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:37

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:25Control

Round 4Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control2:35

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 5Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control2:15

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

146 / 205

Sig Strikes

60 / 114

70.4%

Sig Str %

51.4%

215 / 276

Total Strikes

92 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 10

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:22

Ctrl Time

7:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roy Nelson	7 / 13	22 / 30	2 / 2
1	Josh Barnett	17 / 26	27 / 36	0 / 0
2	Roy Nelson	16 / 35	19 / 38	0 / 1
2	Josh Barnett	44 / 65	65 / 87	0 / 0
3	Roy Nelson	15 / 30	22 / 38	0 / 4
3	Josh Barnett	21 / 31	33 / 43	0 / 0
4	Josh Barnett	39 / 50	57 / 68	0 / 0
4	Roy Nelson	4 / 10	6 / 12	1 / 2
5	Roy Nelson	18 / 26	23 / 31	1 / 1
5	Josh Barnett	25 / 33	33 / 42	0 / 0

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18