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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1494

Josh BarnettvsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:48

Style matchupJosh Barnett: Submission grapplervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Barnett at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Barnett has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ben Rothwell has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Barnett

Red Corner

Ben Rothwell

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh BarnettW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13

vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16

latest

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh BarnettMetricBen Rothwell

3.20

Strikes / min

3.71

2.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

0.68

55%

Takedown defense

70%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh BarnettBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Barnett(5 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh BarnettTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

31% acc · 69%

86% acc · 34%

Body

63% acc · 14%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

52% acc · 94%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

40% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Barnett rounds

even

Ben Rothwell rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:28

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 68

Sig Strikes

35 / 91

51%

Sig Str %

39%

35 / 68

Total Strikes

38 / 94

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Rothwell	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Barnett	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Ben Rothwell	17 / 52	20 / 55	0 / 0	1
2	Josh Barnett	15 / 29	15 / 29	0 / 1	0

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16