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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Nick Denis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Elo1490

Joseph SandovalvsNick DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Nick Denis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:22

Model Prediction: Nick Denis wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Nick Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Denis at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nick Denis is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Joseph Sandoval has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Joseph Sandoval has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Nick Denis has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Sandoval (53.5%).
  • Nick Denis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Sandoval
Red Corner
VS
Nick Denis
Blue Corner
+250
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-275
(73%)
1351
Elo
1490
40
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
168 cm
Reach
178 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph Sandoval
oldest →
L
KOvs Walel Watson · Oct 11
latest
Nick Denis
oldest →
L
SUBvs Roland Delorme · May 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph SandovalMetricNick Denis
1.82
Strikes / min
6.54
12.12
Strikes absorbed / min
5.42
60%
Strike defense
36%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.80
0%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-10.30Δ 11.42 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes0.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Joseph SandovalNick Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Joseph Sandoval(2 fights)Nick Denis(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.9|Blue +138.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph SandovalTargetNick Denis

By target zone

3
75% acc · 100%
Head
11
48% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
75% acc · 100%
Distance
7
39% acc · 64%
0
Clinch
4
80% acc · 36%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joseph Sandoval rounds
0
even
1
Nick Denis rounds
Round 1Nick Denis edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 4
Sig Strikes
11 / 23
75%
Sig Str %
47%
3 / 4
Total Strikes
11 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nick Denis11 / 2311 / 230 / 00
1Joseph Sandoval3 / 43 / 40 / 00

Joseph Sandoval

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Nick Denis

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2