Flyweight

3 Rounds

Eric Shelton won · S-DEC R3

Elo1532

Elo1491

Joseph MoralesvsEric SheltonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Eric Shelton won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Morales: Submission grapplervsEric Shelton: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Eric Shelton wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Eric Shelton wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eric Shelton at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eric Shelton has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Morales

Red Corner

Eric Shelton

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1532

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph MoralesW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18

SUBvs Alibi Idiris · Aug 25

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Nov 25

latest

Eric SheltonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 17

vs Jarred Brooks · Jul 17

vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 17

vs Alex Perez · Feb 18

vs Jordan Espinosa · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph MoralesMetricEric Shelton

2.00

Strikes / min

2.57

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.88

57%

Strike defense

63%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.83

26%

Takedown defense

46%

3.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.05evenly matched on net striking+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph MoralesEric Shelton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Morales(5 fights)Eric Shelton(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.4|Blue -40.4

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph MoralesTargetEric Shelton

By target zone

25% acc · 58%

Head

15% acc · 44%

89% acc · 33%

Body

80% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 31%

By position

29% acc · 67%

Distance

25% acc · 81%

25% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

88% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Morales rounds

even

Eric Shelton rounds

Round 1Eric Shelton edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:07

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 2Eric Shelton edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:04

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 3Eric Shelton edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:40

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 67

Sig Strikes

16 / 57

35.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

28 / 71

Total Strikes

45 / 90

1 / 1

TDs

7 / 10

100%

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

6:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eric Shelton	7 / 24	16 / 35	3 / 3	0
1	Joseph Morales	7 / 27	8 / 28	0 / 0	1
2	Eric Shelton	6 / 22	14 / 30	2 / 4	0
2	Joseph Morales	12 / 26	13 / 27	0 / 0	2
3	Eric Shelton	3 / 11	15 / 25	2 / 3	0
3	Joseph Morales	5 / 14	7 / 16	1 / 1	1

Joseph Morales

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Eric Shelton

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6