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Middleweight
3 Rounds
JunYong Park won · SUB R2
Elo1458
Joseph Holmes
Elo1510

Joseph HolmesvsJunYong ParkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JunYong Park won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:04

Model Prediction: JunYong Park wins(65.0%)

Actual result: JunYong Park wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JunYong Park at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • JunYong Park threatens submissions; Joseph Holmes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Joseph Holmes has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Holmes
Red Corner
VS
JunYong Park
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1458
Elo
1510
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'10"
203.2 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph Holmes
oldest →
L
vs Jamie Pickett · Jan 22
W
SUBvs Alen Amedovski · May 22
L
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · May 23
latest
JunYong Park
oldest →
W
SUBvs Albert Duraev · Jul 23
L
vs Andre Muniz · Dec 23
W
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 24
W
vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jun 25
L
vs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph HolmesMetricJunYong Park
2.88
Strikes / min
4.64
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
3.82
54%
Strike defense
51%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.69
50%
Takedown defense
54%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.20Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1502Strikes2.9 vs 4.5Takedowns1.5 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.80 vs 1.10Form0.1 vs 0.3
Joseph HolmesJunYong Park

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Joseph Holmes(4 fights)JunYong Park(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -51.4|Blue +51.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph HolmesTargetJunYong Park

By target zone

8
33% acc · 40%
Head
13
50% acc · 72%
5
71% acc · 25%
Body
0
7
78% acc · 35%
Leg
5
71% acc · 28%

By position

19
51% acc · 95%
Distance
14
50% acc · 78%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 5%
Ground
4
80% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joseph Holmes rounds
1
even
1
JunYong Park rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:39
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control
Round 2JunYong Park edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 40
Sig Strikes
18 / 33
50%
Sig Str %
58%
21 / 42
Total Strikes
48 / 76
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 4
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
2
1
Rev
0
0:39
Ctrl Time
4:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1JunYong Park12 / 2422 / 361 / 20
1Joseph Holmes18 / 3619 / 380 / 00
2JunYong Park6 / 926 / 401 / 22
2Joseph Holmes2 / 42 / 40 / 00

Joseph Holmes

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4

JunYong Park

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9