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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Ribeiro won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1458

Elo1491

Joseph HolmesvsClaudio RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Claudio Ribeiro won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:21

Model Prediction: Joseph Holmes wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Claudio Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Holmes at +136 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudio Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joseph Holmes has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Claudio Ribeiro has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Holmes

Red Corner

Claudio Ribeiro

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1458

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph Holmes

oldest →

vs Jamie Pickett · Jan 22

SUBvs Alen Amedovski · May 22

SUBvs JunYong Park · Oct 22

latest

Claudio RibeiroL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jul 23

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph HolmesMetricClaudio Ribeiro

2.88

Strikes / min

3.59

3.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

54%

Strike defense

30%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.56

50%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.20Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph HolmesClaudio Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Holmes(4 fights)Claudio Ribeiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.9|Blue +32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph HolmesTargetClaudio Ribeiro

By target zone

40% acc · 24%

Head

60% acc · 92%

75% acc · 18%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 59%

Leg

60% acc · 8%

By position

65% acc · 76%

Distance

42% acc · 27%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

70% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Holmes rounds

even

Claudio Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Claudio Ribeiro edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:36

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Claudio Ribeiro edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:54

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 24

Sig Strikes

37 / 63

68.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

22 / 29

Total Strikes

60 / 91

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

3:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Claudio Ribeiro	19 / 29	39 / 52	1 / 1
1	Joseph Holmes	12 / 16	15 / 19	1 / 1
2	Claudio Ribeiro	18 / 34	21 / 39	0 / 0
2	Joseph Holmes	5 / 8	7 / 10	0 / 1

Joseph Holmes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4

Claudio Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4