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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Holmes won · SUB R1
Elo1458
Joseph Holmes
Elo1434

Joseph HolmesvsAlen AmedovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Holmes won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:04

Model Prediction: Joseph Holmes wins(84.0%)

Actual result: Joseph Holmes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Holmes at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joseph Holmes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alen Amedovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joseph Holmes has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Joseph Holmes has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Holmes
Red Corner
VS
Alen Amedovski
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1458
Elo
1434
31
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'10"
203.2 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph HolmesL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jamie Pickett · Jan 22
L
SUBvs JunYong Park · Oct 22
L
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · May 23
latest
Alen AmedovskiL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Apr 19
L
KOvs John Phillips · Sep 19
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Sep 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph HolmesMetricAlen Amedovski
2.88
Strikes / min
0.99
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
54%
Strike defense
46%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.20Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1462Strikes2.9 vs 1.0Takedowns1.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Joseph HolmesAlen Amedovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joseph Holmes(4 fights)Alen Amedovski(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.7|Blue -24.7
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -840.0|Blue +840.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph HolmesTargetAlen Amedovski

By target zone

11
65% acc · 69%
Head
1
14% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 13%
Body
0
0% acc
3
75% acc · 19%
Leg
0

By position

9
64% acc · 56%
Distance
1
13% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
6
75% acc · 38%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joseph Holmes rounds
0
even
0
Alen Amedovski rounds
Round 1Joseph Holmes edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:21
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 23
Sig Strikes
1 / 8
69%
Sig Str %
12%
16 / 23
Total Strikes
1 / 8
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alen Amedovski1 / 81 / 80 / 00
1Joseph Holmes16 / 2316 / 231 / 11

Joseph Holmes

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4

Alen Amedovski

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4