← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · SUB R1

Elo1397

Elo1500

Joseph BenavidezvsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsTim Elliott: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1397

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricTim Elliott

3.52

Strikes / min

3.51

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

61%

Strike defense

56%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

3.61

62%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.1|Blue +103.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

25% acc · 44%

Head

67% acc · 63%

67% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 19%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

76% acc · 81%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:34

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 23

Sig Strikes

16 / 21

39%

Sig Str %

76%

14 / 28

Total Strikes

27 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Elliott	16 / 21	27 / 35	3 / 3	0
1	Joseph Benavidez	9 / 23	14 / 28	0 / 0	1

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21