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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1492

Joseph BenavidezvsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsSergio Pettis: Elusive striker

Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).
Sergio Pettis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Sergio Pettis

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1397

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Aug 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricSergio Pettis

3.52

Strikes / min

3.88

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

61%

Strike defense

65%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

0.85

62%

Takedown defense

67%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.9|Blue +94.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +364.0|Blue -364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

22% acc · 47%

Head

45% acc · 93%

42% acc · 24%

Body

38% acc · 7%

68% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 97%

Distance

41% acc · 86%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Sergio Pettis rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:14

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:55

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:15

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 186

Sig Strikes

74 / 168

31.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

86 / 216

Total Strikes

87 / 183

2 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

13.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Pettis	25 / 60	35 / 70	0 / 0
1	Joseph Benavidez	25 / 59	32 / 67	1 / 5
2	Sergio Pettis	22 / 47	24 / 49	0 / 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	14 / 54	26 / 68	0 / 4
3	Sergio Pettis	27 / 61	28 / 64	0 / 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	20 / 73	28 / 81	1 / 5

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14