Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1491

Joseph BenavidezvsJohn MoragaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joseph Benavidez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

John Moraga

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1397

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricJohn Moraga

3.52

Strikes / min

2.57

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

61%

Strike defense

56%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

0.62

62%

Takedown defense

44%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezJohn Moraga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.2|Blue +94.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetJohn Moraga

By target zone

48% acc · 56%

Head

33% acc · 33%

67% acc · 19%

Body

81% acc · 50%

89% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

43% acc · 41%

Distance

41% acc · 50%

75% acc · 24%

Clinch

89% acc · 40%

79% acc · 35%

Ground

80% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

John Moraga rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:46

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:43

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control2:40

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 109

Sig Strikes

42 / 75

61.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

116 / 168

Total Strikes

55 / 92

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

72%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:09

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Moraga	12 / 16	13 / 18	0 / 3
1	Joseph Benavidez	18 / 23	25 / 30	2 / 3
2	John Moraga	20 / 34	31 / 48	0 / 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	20 / 35	34 / 49	1 / 2
3	John Moraga	10 / 25	11 / 26	0 / 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	25 / 51	57 / 89	1 / 1

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14