Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1490

Joseph BenavidezvsIan McCallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsIan McCall: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Ian McCall wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian McCall at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ian McCall has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Ian McCall

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1397

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Ian McCall

oldest →

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 12

vs Iliarde Santos · Aug 13

vs Brad Pickett · Jul 14

vs John Lineker · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricIan McCall

3.52

Strikes / min

3.59

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

61%

Strike defense

67%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

2.08

62%

Takedown defense

88%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezIan McCall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Ian McCall(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -93.4|Blue +93.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -106.0|Blue +106.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetIan McCall

By target zone

24% acc · 58%

Head

26% acc · 45%

52% acc · 21%

Body

54% acc · 33%

46% acc · 21%

Leg

47% acc · 23%

By position

29% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 75%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Ian McCall rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:19

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 184

Sig Strikes

40 / 113

30.7%

Sig Str %

34%

62 / 189

Total Strikes

54 / 127

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian McCall	14 / 36	14 / 36	0 / 1
1	Joseph Benavidez	20 / 62	21 / 63	0 / 0
2	Ian McCall	19 / 44	33 / 58	0 / 2
2	Joseph Benavidez	14 / 44	18 / 48	0 / 1
3	Ian McCall	7 / 33	7 / 33	1 / 1
3	Joseph Benavidez	23 / 78	23 / 78	0 / 0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Ian McCall

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5