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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1351

Joseph BenavidezvsIan LovelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsIan Loveland: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Ian Loveland wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Loveland at +360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).
Ian Loveland has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Ian Loveland

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1397

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Ian Loveland

oldest →

vs Tyler Toner · Dec 10

vs Yves Jabouin · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricIan Loveland

3.52

Strikes / min

2.71

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

61%

Strike defense

64%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.00

62%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezIan Loveland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Ian Loveland(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.9|Blue -45.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetIan Loveland

By target zone

25% acc · 38%

Head

42% acc · 71%

69% acc · 52%

Body

92% acc · 24%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

38% acc · 85%

Distance

49% acc · 87%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Ian Loveland rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:33

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:28

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control1:46

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 118

Sig Strikes

45 / 90

39.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

70 / 147

Total Strikes

50 / 98

5 / 17

TDs

0 / 1

30%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:47

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Loveland	19 / 37	20 / 38	0 / 1
1	Joseph Benavidez	20 / 42	28 / 52	0 / 6
2	Ian Loveland	13 / 29	16 / 35	0 / 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	14 / 39	18 / 46	2 / 5
3	Ian Loveland	13 / 24	14 / 25	0 / 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	14 / 37	24 / 49	3 / 6

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Ian Loveland

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights3