← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1472

Joseph BenavidezvsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at +163 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+163

(38%)

1397

Elo

1472

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricHenry Cejudo

3.52

Strikes / min

3.83

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

61%

Strike defense

57%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.78

62%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.1|Blue +75.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

23% acc · 57%

Head

20% acc · 43%

54% acc · 28%

Body

74% acc · 43%

44% acc · 16%

Leg

77% acc · 15%

By position

30% acc · 99%

Distance

34% acc · 87%

25% acc · 1%

Clinch

47% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 232

Sig Strikes

68 / 195

29%

Sig Str %

34.3%

69 / 232

Total Strikes

70 / 197

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Cejudo	21 / 66	21 / 66	1 / 3
1	Joseph Benavidez	22 / 69	22 / 69	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	21 / 64	21 / 64	0 / 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	22 / 76	22 / 76	0 / 0
3	Henry Cejudo	26 / 65	28 / 67	0 / 4
3	Joseph Benavidez	25 / 87	25 / 87	0 / 0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16