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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1397
Elo1427
Eddie Wineland

Joseph BenavidezvsEddie WinelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsEddie Wineland: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(85.9%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Eddie Wineland has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).
  • Eddie Wineland has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Wineland
Blue Corner
-295
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
1397
Elo
1427
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19
W
KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20
L
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21
latest
Eddie WinelandL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18
W
KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20
L
KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21
L
KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricEddie Wineland
3.52
Strikes / min
3.40
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
61%
Strike defense
68%
1.41
TDs / 15 min
0.34
62%
Takedown defense
86%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1484Strikes48.0 vs 11.0Takedowns5.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Joseph BenavidezEddie Wineland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Eddie Wineland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -30.5|Blue +30.5
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetEddie Wineland

By target zone

28
37% acc · 42%
Head
12
21% acc · 50%
16
55% acc · 24%
Body
9
82% acc · 38%
22
56% acc · 33%
Leg
3
75% acc · 13%

By position

55
41% acc · 83%
Distance
21
31% acc · 88%
10
100% acc · 15%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 13%
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Joseph Benavidez rounds
0
even
0
Eddie Wineland rounds
Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:08
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
66 / 144
Sig Strikes
24 / 71
46.3%
Sig Str %
34.7%
69 / 147
Total Strikes
25 / 72
0 / 6
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eddie Wineland7 / 227 / 220 / 00
1Joseph Benavidez21 / 5121 / 510 / 00
2Eddie Wineland11 / 2112 / 220 / 10
2Joseph Benavidez23 / 4026 / 430 / 40
3Eddie Wineland6 / 286 / 280 / 00
3Joseph Benavidez22 / 5322 / 530 / 20

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights21

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights16