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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1397
Elo1491
Dustin Ortiz

Joseph BenavidezvsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at +380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Ortiz
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+380
(21%)
1397
Elo
1491
42
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19
W
KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20
L
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21
latest
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17
W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17
W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18
L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricDustin Ortiz
3.52
Strikes / min
2.94
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.41
TDs / 15 min
3.01
62%
Takedown defense
52%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1532Strikes35.9 vs 43.8Takedowns0.9 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.44 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.6
Joseph BenavidezDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -94.5|Blue +94.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +71.0|Blue -71.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

60
39% acc · 64%
Head
30
23% acc · 81%
17
63% acc · 18%
Body
7
44% acc · 19%
17
89% acc · 18%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

73
42% acc · 78%
Distance
31
24% acc · 84%
19
86% acc · 20%
Clinch
6
32% acc · 16%
2
50% acc · 2%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Joseph Benavidez rounds
0
even
0
Dustin Ortiz rounds
Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:33
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:14
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control1:41
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
94 / 199
Sig Strikes
37 / 149
47%
Sig Str %
24%
96 / 201
Total Strikes
59 / 171
2 / 3
TDs
2 / 9
66.7%
TD %
22.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:28
Ctrl Time
0:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dustin Ortiz15 / 5624 / 650 / 00
1Joseph Benavidez35 / 8035 / 801 / 10
2Dustin Ortiz12 / 5116 / 551 / 40
2Joseph Benavidez34 / 6635 / 670 / 10
3Dustin Ortiz10 / 4219 / 511 / 50
3Joseph Benavidez25 / 5326 / 541 / 10

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights21

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14