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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1397
Elo1491
Dustin Ortiz

Joseph BenavidezvsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dustin Ortiz enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Ortiz
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1397
Elo
1491
42
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Perez · Nov 18
W
KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20
L
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21
latest
Dustin OrtizW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16
L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17
W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17
W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricDustin Ortiz
3.52
Strikes / min
2.94
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.41
TDs / 15 min
3.01
62%
Takedown defense
52%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1629 vs 1551Strikes47.3 vs 35.7Takedowns1.1 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.08Form0.4 vs 0.8
Joseph BenavidezDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -94.5|Blue +94.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -125.0|Blue +125.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

7
23% acc · 33%
Head
21
39% acc · 43%
6
75% acc · 29%
Body
28
88% acc · 57%
8
67% acc · 38%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

20
45% acc · 95%
Distance
20
36% acc · 41%
0
0% acc
Clinch
22
96% acc · 45%
1
25% acc · 5%
Ground
7
78% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joseph Benavidez rounds
1
even
1
Dustin Ortiz rounds
Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control2:26
Knockdowns1
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:17
19Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:41Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns3
Control3:04
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
21 / 50
Sig Strikes
49 / 87
35.3%
Sig Str %
56.3%
37 / 72
Total Strikes
93 / 136
7 / 12
TDs
3 / 8
58.3%
TD %
21%
0
Sub Att
0
2
Rev
1
6:47
Ctrl Time
3:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dustin Ortiz16 / 2925 / 390 / 10
1Joseph Benavidez9 / 2113 / 283 / 40
2Dustin Ortiz19 / 3534 / 503 / 70
2Joseph Benavidez11 / 2212 / 231 / 40
3Dustin Ortiz14 / 2334 / 470 / 00
3Joseph Benavidez1 / 712 / 213 / 40

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights21

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14