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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · S-DEC R5

Elo1397

Elo1491

Joseph BenavidezvsDemetrious JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsDemetrious Johnson: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at +225 American odds

+$225 profit

$325 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Demetrious Johnson

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1397

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricDemetrious Johnson

3.52

Strikes / min

3.43

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

1.66

61%

Strike defense

67%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

3.35

62%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezDemetrious Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.2|Blue +94.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetDemetrious Johnson

By target zone

11% acc · 52%

Head

30% acc · 38%

43% acc · 27%

Body

79% acc · 43%

50% acc · 20%

Leg

83% acc · 19%

By position

15% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 58%

35% acc · 20%

Clinch

72% acc · 30%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

90% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Demetrious Johnson rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:01

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:13

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:55

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 250

Sig Strikes

77 / 156

17.2%

Sig Str %

49.6%

53 / 259

Total Strikes

96 / 177

0 / 7

TDs

5 / 10

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:24

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Demetrious Johnson	18 / 32	22 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Joseph Benavidez	9 / 49	9 / 49	0 / 2	0
2	Demetrious Johnson	19 / 38	21 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Joseph Benavidez	15 / 64	16 / 65	0 / 2	0
3	Demetrious Johnson	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Joseph Benavidez	10 / 72	10 / 72	0 / 1	0
4	Joseph Benavidez	5 / 24	9 / 28	0 / 1	2
4	Demetrious Johnson	15 / 24	25 / 36	2 / 4	0
5	Demetrious Johnson	12 / 28	15 / 31	3 / 6	0
5	Joseph Benavidez	5 / 41	9 / 45	0 / 1	0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17