Flyweight

3 Rounds

Askar Askarov won · U-DEC

Elo1397

Elo1495

Joseph BenavidezvsAskar AskarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Askar Askarov won

U-DEC

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsAskar Askarov: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Askar Askarov wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Askar Askarov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Askar Askarov at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Askar Askarov

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1397

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Nov 18

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

latest

Askar Askarov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Jan 20

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 20

vs Kai Kara-France · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricAskar Askarov

3.52

Strikes / min

3.05

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

61%

Strike defense

57%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

2.60

62%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezAskar Askarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Askar Askarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetAskar Askarov

By target zone

23% acc · 28%

Head

60% acc · 67%

51% acc · 46%

Body

78% acc · 24%

75% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 89%

Distance

65% acc · 86%

80% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Askar Askarov rounds

Round 1Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:06Control

Round 3Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 114

Sig Strikes

58 / 88

43.7%

Sig Str %

67.3%

61 / 130

Total Strikes

71 / 107

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 6

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Askar Askarov	21 / 26	22 / 27	1 / 2
1	Joseph Benavidez	18 / 54	20 / 56	0 / 0
2	Askar Askarov	17 / 24	29 / 42	4 / 4
2	Joseph Benavidez	11 / 19	23 / 32	0 / 0
3	Askar Askarov	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	17 / 41	18 / 42	0 / 0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Askar Askarov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4