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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1397

Elo1491

Joseph BenavidezvsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoseph Benavidez: Elusive strikervsAli Bagautinov: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Ali Bagautinov

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1397

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Ali Bagautinov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Nov 13

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14

vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricAli Bagautinov

3.52

Strikes / min

2.85

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

61%

Strike defense

52%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

2.51

62%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -93.7|Blue +93.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -343.0|Blue +343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

21% acc · 71%

38% acc · 21%

Body

42% acc · 16%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

32% acc · 92%

Distance

26% acc · 97%

57% acc · 8%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Ali Bagautinov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 146

Sig Strikes

31 / 121

32.3%

Sig Str %

25.7%

48 / 146

Total Strikes

31 / 121

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ali Bagautinov	10 / 36	10 / 36	0 / 0
1	Joseph Benavidez	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 1
2	Ali Bagautinov	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 3
2	Joseph Benavidez	17 / 49	17 / 49	0 / 0
3	Ali Bagautinov	12 / 52	12 / 52	0 / 2
3	Joseph Benavidez	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7