← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Piera Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1527

Josefine KnutssonvsPiera RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Piera Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Piera Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Piera Rodriguez at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Piera Rodriguez has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josefine Knutsson

Red Corner

Piera Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1502

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

152.4 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josefine KnutssonW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Sep 23

vs Julia Polastri · Jun 24

latest

Piera RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Apr 23

vs Ariane Carnelossi · May 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Aug 25

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josefine KnutssonMetricPiera Rodriguez

4.24

Strikes / min

4.04

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

54%

Strike defense

53%

1.60

TDs / 15 min

4.04

35%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josefine KnutssonPiera Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josefine Knutsson(3 fights)Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.6|Blue +24.6

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josefine KnutssonTargetPiera Rodriguez

By target zone

37% acc · 62%

Head

51% acc · 72%

89% acc · 31%

Body

80% acc · 22%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 46%

Distance

46% acc · 33%

56% acc · 54%

Clinch

69% acc · 31%

Ground

59% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josefine Knutsson rounds

even

Piera Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:20

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:57

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 3Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 55

Sig Strikes

36 / 64

41.3%

Sig Str %

53%

67 / 100

Total Strikes

85 / 137

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 10

—

TD %

85%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

10:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Piera Rodriguez	19 / 31	24 / 36	4 / 5
1	Josefine Knutsson	18 / 30	31 / 46	0 / 0
2	Piera Rodriguez	12 / 19	21 / 34	3 / 4
2	Josefine Knutsson	6 / 19	16 / 29	0 / 0
3	Piera Rodriguez	5 / 14	40 / 67	1 / 1
3	Josefine Knutsson	2 / 6	20 / 25	0 / 0

Josefine Knutsson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights3

Piera Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7