Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Josefine Knutsson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1491

Josefine KnutssonvsJulia PolastriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josefine Knutsson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josefine Knutsson wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Josefine Knutsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josefine Knutsson at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julia Polastri has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Josefine Knutsson

Red Corner

Julia Polastri

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1502

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

152.4 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josefine Knutsson

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Sep 23

vs Piera Rodriguez · Dec 24

latest

Julia Polastri

oldest →

vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25

KOvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 25

DECvs Talita Alencar · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josefine KnutssonMetricJulia Polastri

4.24

Strikes / min

6.22

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

5.18

54%

Strike defense

59%

1.60

TDs / 15 min

0.62

35%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josefine KnutssonJulia Polastri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josefine Knutsson(3 fights)Julia Polastri(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.0|Blue -11.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josefine KnutssonTargetJulia Polastri

By target zone

39% acc · 55%

Head

46% acc · 59%

72% acc · 25%

Body

66% acc · 30%

89% acc · 20%

Leg

70% acc · 11%

By position

109

50% acc · 88%

Distance

47% acc · 67%

63% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

60% acc · 2%

Ground

72% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josefine Knutsson rounds

even

Julia Polastri rounds

Round 1Josefine Knutsson edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control0:06

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Josefine Knutsson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 3Josefine Knutsson edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:37

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

124 / 244

Sig Strikes

64 / 122

49.3%

Sig Str %

49%

145 / 271

Total Strikes

86 / 152

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

4:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julia Polastri	34 / 62	36 / 65	1 / 1	0
1	Josefine Knutsson	61 / 108	64 / 111	0 / 0	0
2	Julia Polastri	5 / 12	16 / 27	1 / 1	0
2	Josefine Knutsson	24 / 51	32 / 63	0 / 0	0
3	Julia Polastri	25 / 48	34 / 60	1 / 1	1
3	Josefine Knutsson	39 / 85	49 / 97	0 / 0	0

Josefine Knutsson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights3

Julia Polastri

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5